Meath West constituency profile: Only one seat is really callable in this hotly contested three-seater

Outgoing TD: Peadar Tóibín (Aon), Damien English (FG-retired), Johnny Guirke (SF)
Who are the candidates running in Meath West? Deputy Johnny Guirke (SF), Deputy Peadar Tóibín (Aon), Cllr Noel French (Ind), Cllr Aisling Dempsey (FF), Cllr Linda Murray Nelson (FG), Cllr Ronan Moore (SD), Séamus McMenamin (GP), Finbar Lynch (PBP), David O’Shea (IFP), Ian McGauley (TIP)
On the eve of the election, only one seat is really callable in this hotly contested three-seater, that of Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín, who has the track record and national profile to hold – it will be some surprise if he doesn’t make it.
The loss of some districts to Westmeath in the redraw will take votes from Sinn Féin’s Johnny Guirke, but it won’t inflict a mortal blow. In truth, Guirke has a lot in common with several other Sinn Féin 2020 poll toppers who haven’t been appointed to front-bench positions or built much of a national profile – a lot will come down to the national performance on the day.
However, at the outset, he looks like he will have enough of a buffer to hold, and Sinn Féin had a decent local election in Meath – albeit with gains concentrated in the other constituency.
If the first two seats pan out along these lines, it will be a fight between Fine Gael’s Linda Murray Nelson, based in Navan, and Fianna Fáil’s Aisling Dempsey – daughter of former cabinet minister Noel – for the final seat. A key factor here will be the distribution of Noel French’s preferences – presuming both can stay ahead of him, which shouldn’t be taken as a given, as he is the only strong independent candidate running.
The Trim man polled one of the highest first preferences in the country in the local elections, but will have to broaden his appeal beyond his base to come into the reckoning. If he can’t do that, the question will be whether his votes favour his former party’s candidate (he left Fine Gael earlier this year), or stay in Trim and break for Dempsey.
The same is true to some extent for Ronan Moore of the Social Democrats, who is the only natural home for centre-left votes and should poll well, but probably not well enough to come into the reckoning. Where his preferences go will be key. For every argument that can be made for Fine Gael – the Harris hop helping Murray Nelson in her battle to hold Damien English’s old seat, for example – a counter argument can be made for Dempsey, who can also rely on the strength of the family name. It’s probably one candidate from three for the final seat, but if Sinn Féin have a bad day, that could extend to the second seat as well. This cannot be called with any degree of confidence.
Remaining a three seater with 19 electoral districts transferring back into Longford-Westmeath – meaning the entirety of the constituency comprises one county again. Two big local concerns – Navan hospital and Navan rail access – are not the red-button issues they once were. Crime and housing are the local issues to watch, with migration less of a sensitive topic in Meath West, according to sources on the ground.
Possible outcome: Aontú (1), Sinn Féin (1), Fine Gael (1)